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USA economic indicators - T

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List of indicators - T:

• Trade Balance

Trade Balance

The trade balance is a measure of the difference between imports and exports of tangible goods and services. The level of the trade balance and changes in exports and imports are widely followed by foreign exchange markets.

The trade balance is a major indicator of foreign exchange trends. Seen in isolation, measures of imports and exports are important indicators of overall economic activity in the economy.

It is often of interest to examine the trend growth rates for exports and imports separately. Trends in export activities reflect the competitive position of the country in question, but also the strength of economic activity abroad. Trends in import activity reflect the strength of domestic economic activity.

Typically, a nation that runs a substantial trade balance deficit has a weak currency due to the continued commercial selling of the currency. This can, however, be offset by financial investment flows for extended periods of time.

A widening trade gap suggests that the dollar may be overvalued, especially if exports are weak. Strong imports are a more complex issue as it suggests that domestic spending is too strong. In this case, higher interest rates may be needed which would tend to be dollar supportive, but there would also be pressure for a weaker dollar to help boost exports and close the trade gap. A higher than expected trade deficit will tend to weaken the dollar, especially if exports are weak.

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