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Ichimoku Forex Forecast by Integra Capital Ltd.
10-15 October 2006
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Abbreviated: IKH - Ishimoku Kinko Hyo, TS - Tenkan-sen, KS - Kijun-sen, SSA - Senkou Span A, SSB - Senkou Span B, ChS - Chinkou Span, Up Cumo - yellow "cloud", Down Cumo - brown "cloud"

USDCHF

On Monday a Swiss franc has a little risen, having formed a white candlestick "handing man" which usually forecasts continuation of rise, however, being at market's top, can speak about a turn of the tendency. In today's Asian session oscillation of a rate were insignificant. All IKH-patterns: a disposition of a rate above Cumo, and ChS above the price chart, future Up Cumo and "a three-line signal" speak about a steady Bullish trend. The nearest support is fast trend line TS.

EURUSD

A rate of Euro on Monday and today's Asian session weak oscillated at a level of closing of the last week. Horizontality of trend lines TS and KS speaks about consolidation of a rate, after heavy falling on Friday, but almost all IKH-patterns: decline of the price below Cumo, disposition of ChS below the price chart, "a deadly cross" and future Down Cumo testify to the beginning of a Bearish a trend on European currency. Occurrence of "a three-line signal" will point to stability of trend falling, and the resistance now is fast trend line TS.

GBPUSD

On Monday a rate of the British pound has continued the falling within the Cumo that speaks about flat dynamic between support on SSB and resistance on SSA. Herewith the majority of IKH-patterns: a disposition of the price under Cumo, and ChS below the price chart, "a deadly cross" and future Down Cumo point to an opportunity of continuation of falling of a rate of the British currency.

USDJPY

A Japanese Yen on Monday and today's Asian session has continued slow rise and now all IKH-patterns: a disposition of a rate above Up Cumo, and ChS above the price chart, "a golden cross" and "a three-line signal" testify about a strength Bullish trend. The nearest line of support is fast trend line TS.

USDCAD

On Monday a Canadian dollar has fallen and has returned within the Cumo, however it again has returned on today's Asian session to former positions, having risen in price. Horizontality of fast trend line TS points to consolidation of a rate of the Canadian currency at level SSB, but the patterns from "a golden cross" and disposition of ChS above the price chart predict the further rise, and Down Cumo foretells falling. Therefore the situation in the market of the Canadian currency continues to be ambiguity.

AUDUSD

An Australian dollar on Monday has a little risen in price, and in today's Asian session remained practically constant. Despite of this majority of IKH-patterns: a disposition of the price below Cumo, and ChS below the price chart, future Down Cumo and "a deadly cross", point to a Bearish trend on the Australian currency. Formation of "a three-line signal" will tell about its stability, and as the nearest resistance now is fast trend line TS.

NZDUSD

On Monday a New Zealand dollar has risen and a white candle "hummer" means probability of its further rise, but in today's Asian session it again has fallen. Horizontality of trend lines TS and KS confirm consolidation of a rate above support TS, herewith many signals IKH-patterns: a disposition of the price above wide Up Cumo, ChS above the price chart, and TS above KS and "a three-line signal" speak about kept strength of a Bullish trend and an opportunity of its renewal. A pattern to this will give from the rise of the New Zealand currency accompanied by upsurge of support TS.

GBPCHF

A cross-rate of British pound/Swiss franc on Monday and today's Asian session slowly fell, remaining above trend lines TS and KS. Its horizontality means continuation of consolidation of cross-rate, but all IKH-patterns: a disposition of a rate above wide Up Cumo, TS above KS, and ChS above the price chart, "a golden cross" and "a three-line signal" testify to strength of a Bullish trend. A pattern to its renewal will give from the rise of a rate accompanied by upsurge of support TS. A rate of the British pound to US dollar now has flat dynamics in a stage of decline, and a Swiss franc rise in a Bullish trend that points to cross-rate of these currencies probability of continuation of rise.

On Monday because of celebrating to the USA, dollar has shown weak volatility in the global currency market. A Swiss franc and a Japanese Yen are rise in up trends, and a Canadian dollar continues consolidation and its dynamics very ambiguity. A Euro was consolidated, having entered into a down trend, and the British pound has flat dynamics and fall. An Australian dollar was consolidated in a down trend, and a New Zealand dollar and cross-rate of the British pound to the Swiss franc were consolidated at top of the up trends.

USDCHF

On Tuesday a Swiss franc has renewed the quickly rise, and in today's Asian session oscillated were insignificant. All IKH-patterns: a disposition of a rate above Cumo, and ChS above the price chart, future Up Cumo and "a three-line signal" speak about a steady Bullish trend. The nearest support is fast trend line TS.

EURUSD

A rate of Euro on Tuesday has finished technical consolidation and has essentially declined, and in today's Asian session it has slightly rise. Yesterday's formation of "a three-line signal" has generated a full set of IKH-patterns: a disposition of the price below Cumo, and ChS below the price chart, "a deadly cross" and the future Down Cumo, point to a steady down trend on European currency. Resistance now is fast trend line TS.

GBPUSD

On Tuesday a British pound has continued to quickly cheaper, and, having breakdown support SSB, has left from Cumo, and in today's Asian session it has a little risen. It means end of flat dynamics and forms premises to the beginning of a Bearish trend on the British currency. Herewith the majority of IKH-patterns: a disposition of the price below Cumo, and ChS below the price chart, "a deadly cross" and the future Down Cumo also point to an opportunity of continuation of falling of a rate, and formation of "a three-line signal" will finally confirm stability of a Bearish trend. Resistance now is SSB.

USDJPY

A Japanese Yen on Tuesday has accelerated the rise, and in today's Asian session remained practically constant. Now all IKH-patterns: a disposition of a rate above Cumo, and ChS above the price chart, future Up Cumo and "a three-line pattern" testify about a strength Bullish trend. The nearest support is fast trend line TS.

USDCAD

On Tuesday a Canadian dollar has pass through quickly upturn, having risen in price it is more, than on a "figure", and in today's Asian trading session it remained almost constant. The decidedly rise of a rate above Cumo, together with other Bullish pattern of IKH: "a golden cross" and rise ChS above the price chart and the begin formation of future Up Cumo, speak about an opportunity of the beginning of a Bullish trend. Occurrences of "a three-line signal" will be confirm its stability, and as support now is SSB.

AUDUSD

An Australian dollar on Tuesday and today's Asian session, made weak oscillation at one level, remaining below resistance on fast trend line TS. Herewith the majority of IKH-patterns: a disposition of the price below Cumo, and ChS below the price chart, future Down Cumo and "a deadly cross", speak about a Bearish trend on the Australian currency. Formation of "a three-line signal" will tell about trend stability.

NZDUSD

On Tuesday and today's Asian session a New Zealand dollar has continued weak oscillation above support TS. Horizontality of trend lines TS and KS confirm consolidation of a rate, but herewith many IKH-patterns: a disposition of the price above wide Up Cumo, ChS above the price chart, and TS above KS and "a three-line signal" speak about kept of strength of a Bullish trend and an opportunity of its renewal. A pattern to this becomes the rise of the New Zealand currency accompanied by upsurge of support TS.

GBPCHF

A cross-rate of British pound to Swiss franc on Tuesday and today's Asian session has continued weak oscillations at one level, remaining above trend lines TS and KS. Its horizontality means continuation of consolidation of cross-rate, but all IKH-patterns: a disposition of a rate above wide Up Cumo, TS above KS, and ChS above the price chart, "a golden cross" and "a three-line signal" testify to strength of a Bullish trend. A pattern to its renewal will be rise of a rate accompanied by upsurge of support TS. The rate of the British pound to US dollar now tries to begin a down trend, and the Swiss franc rise in a Bullish trend that points to probability of continuation of consolidation of cross-rate of these currencies.

On Tuesday the US dollar has continued the quickly rise to major currencies. A Swiss franc and a Japanese Yen are in up trends, and a Canadian dollar also tries to begin trend rise. The euro becomes cheaper in a down trend, and the British pound has finished flat dynamics and has created premises to the beginning down trend. An Australian dollar was consolidated within the down trend, and a New Zealand dollar and cross-rate of the British pound to the Swiss franc were consolidated at top of an up trends.

USDCHF

On Wednesday a Swiss franc has a little risen, but long shadows of a yesterday's white candlestick point to the market uncertainty, and on today's Asian trading session it has slightly fallen. Despite of the certain consolidation of the price all IKH-patterns: a disposition of a rate above Cumo and ChS above the price chart, "a golden cross", future Up Cumo and "a three-line signal" speak about a steady Bullish trend. The nearest support is fast trend line TS.

EURUSD

A rate of Euro on Wednesday and today's Asian session oscillated at one level, and long shadows of a yesterday's black candlestick mean weak of the Bearish market. But herewith all IKH-patterns: a disposition of the price below Cumo, and ChS below the price chart, "a deadly cross", "a three-line signal" and future Down Cumo testify to keeping strength of a Bearish trend on European currency. Resistance now is fast trend line TS.

GBPUSD

On Wednesday a British pound weakly oscillated on one level, and in today's Asian session it has started to slowly rise. Probably, there is a return of the price to line SSB often occur after its breakdown in the beginning of a Bearish trend. About probability of trend beginning speaks the majority of IKH-patterns: a disposition of the price under Cumo, and ChS below the price chart, "a deadly cross" and future Down Cumo, and formation of "a three-line signal" will finally confirm stability of trend fall.

USDJPY

A Japanese Yen on Wednesday oscillated at one level, having formed the candlestick "doji" speaking about balance and uncertainty in the market, and in today's Asian session it has a little declined. Now all IKH-patterns: a disposition of a rate above Cumo Up, and ChS above the price chart, "a golden cross" and "a three-line signal" testify about a strength Bullish trend. The nearest line of support is fast trend line TS.

USDCAD

On Wednesday a Canadian dollar has continued quickly rise, and in today's Asian trading session it has a little fallen. It confirms the beginning of a Bullish trend on the pair to which the majority of IKH-patterns: rise of the price above Cumo, "a golden cross", upsurge of ChS above the price chart and future Up Cumo testifies. Occurrence of "a three-line signal" will confirm stability of trend upside, and as support now acts SSB.

AUDUSD

An Australian dollar on Wednesday has a little fallen, but in today's Asian session it has started to quickly rise, and has mounted above resistance on fast trend line TS. If on results of the today's trades this breakout will prove to be true, hardly begun the down trend will pass in correction with the target of rise on SSB. But the majority of IKH-patterns: a disposition of the price below Cumo, and ChS below the price chart, future Down Cumo and "a deadly cross", speak about strength of a Bearish trend on the Australian currency. Return of the price under TS and formation of "a three-line signal" will tell about its stability.

NZDUSD

On Wednesday a New Zealand dollar oscillated at one level, having continued consolidation, and in today's Asian session it has fallen, having declined below support TS. Confirmation of breakdown TS by results of the today's trades, will mean the beginning of descending correction of the New Zealand currency, but herewith many IKH-patterns: a disposition of the price above wide Up Cumo, ChS above the price chart, and TS above KS speak about kept strength of a Bullish trend and an opportunity of its renewal. A pattern to this will be mount of the New Zealand currency above upsurge fast trend line TS.

GBPCHF

A cross-rate of British pound to Swiss franc on Wednesday and today's Asian session slowly rise, but trend lines TS and KS shows horizontality, that consolidation still is not finish. Herewith all IKH-patterns: a disposition of a rate above wide Up Cumo, TS above KS, and ChS above the price chart, "a golden cross" and "a three-line signal" testify to strength of a Bullish trend. A pattern to its renewal will be rise of support TS. The rate of the British pound to US dollar now tries to enter into a down trend, and a Swiss franc rise in a Bullish trend that points to probability of continuation of consolidation cross-rate of these currencies.

On Wednesday a US dollar was consolidated to the major currencies. A Swiss franc, a Japanese Yen and Canadian dollar are now in up trends, Euro - in a down trend, and a British pound also tries to begin a down trend. An Australian dollar was consolidated within the down trend, and a New Zealand dollar and cross-rate of the British pound to the Swiss franc were consolidated at tops of up trends.

USDCHF

On Thursday a Swiss franc has declined and a candlestick "black closings bozu" foretold its further falling which was observed in today's Asian trading session. It speaks, at least about consolidations of a rate, and horizontality of TS confirms it. But herewith all IKH-patterns: a disposition of a rate above Cumo, and ChS above the price chart, "a golden cross", future Up Cumo and "a three-line signal" testify to kept of strength of a Bullish trend and an opportunity of its renewal. A pattern to this will be upsurge of fast trend line TS (support).

EURUSD

Euro on Thursday and today's Asian session has stopped to cheapen and confidently risen, having started consolidation of a rate confirmed by horizontality of trend lines TS and KS. But herewith all IKH-patterns: a disposition of the price below Cumo, and ChS below the price chart, "the deadly cross", "a three-line signal" and future Down Cumo testify to keeping strength of a Bearish trend on European currency. Resistance now is fast trend line TS.

GBPUSD

On Thursday and today's Asian session a British pound has stopped the fall and has considerably risen, having got to the Cumo's bottom boundary SSB. If on results of the today's trades the British currency will return within the Cumo, it will mean renewal of flat dynamics. While it is possible to speak about failure of attempt to start a down trend and consolidations of a rate at level SSB. Horizontality of trend lines TS and KS is confirmed range market, but the majority of IKH-patterns: the disposition of the price under Cumo, and ChS below the price chart, "a deadly cross" and future Down Cumo points to an opportunity of renewal decline of a rate. In this case the pullback of the price from SSB will give a important pattern to the beginning of a down trend.

USDJPY

A Japanese Yen on Thursday has declined, having formed with two previous candlesticks a configuration "an evening star doji", usually forecasting a turn of the tendency. And, really, in today's Asian session a rate has continued falling. Horizontality of trend lines TS and KS speaks about consolidation of a rate and the discontinuance of trend rise, but all IKH-patterns: a disposition of a rate above Up Cumo, and ChS above the price chart, "a golden cross" and "a three-line signal" testify to preservation of strength of a Bullish trend and an opportunity of its renewal. A pattern to this will be upsurge of support on fast trend line TS.

USDCAD

On Thursday a Canadian dollar has essentially declined, having continued falling and in today's Asian session. But, despite of observable consolidation, the majority of IKH-patterns: rise of the price above Cumo, "a golden cross", rise ChS above the price chart and future Up Cumo while point to an opportunity of renewal of rise and continuation of an up trend. New rise of the price and occurrence of "a three-line signal" will confirm stability of trend's upsurge, and support now is TS.

AUDUSD

An Australian dollar on Thursday has quickly risen, having mounted for one "figure", and has entranced within the Cumo, having breakout the resistances on TS and SSB, but in today's Asian session it has a little fallen. It means a failure of attempt of the Australian currency to begin a down trend and determination flat dynamics between support on SSB and resistance on SSA. Rise fast trend line TS stops a pattern "a deadly cross", but disposition of ChS below the price chart, TS below KS and future Down Cumo still testify to an opportunity of renewal of falling.

NZDUSD

On Thursday and today's Asian session a New Zealand dollar has continued weak oscillation on a level of fast trend line TS, keeping the range dynamic which has begun in the beginning of week. But herewith almost all IKH-patterns: a disposition of the price above wide Up Cumo, ChS above the price chart and "a golden cross" speak about kept strength of a Bullish and an opportunity of its renewal. A pattern to it will be mount of a New Zealand currency above upsurge fast trend line TS, but its decline below KS will be begin of descending correction.

GBPCHF

Cross-rate of the British pound to the Swiss franc on Thursday and today's Asian session has continued weak oscillation above horizontal trend lines TS and KS that means consolidation. But herewith all IKH-patterns: a disposition of a rate above wide up Cumo, TS above KS, and ChS above the price chart, "a golden cross" and "a three-line signal" speak about presence of a Bullish trend, and a pattern to its renewal will be rise of support TS. The rate of the British pound to US dollar has not managed yet to begin a down trend and has renewed flat dynamics, and a Swiss franc was consolidated in an up trend that points to probability of continuation of consolidation cross-rate of these currencies.

On Thursday a US dollar has started to cheapen to the all major currencies. A Swiss franc, a Japanese Yen and a Canadian dollar have fallen and have begun consolidation, having suspended the up trends, and Euro has risen in price and also was consolidated in a down trend. A British pound and an Australian dollar have not managed to begin trend fall and have returned to flat dynamic. A New Zealand dollar and cross-rate of the British pound to the Swiss franc continue consolidation at tops of the up trends.

USDCHF

On Friday a Swiss franc again has risen, having formed with the previous black candlestick a configuration "the bullish engulfing", forecasting the further rise. Herewith all IKH-patterns: a disposition of a rate above Cumo, and ChS above the price chart, "a golden cross", future Up Cumo and "a three-line signal" also speak about a steady Bullish trend. The nearest support is fast trend line TS.

EURUSD

A euro on Friday were renewed falling, having finished short-term technical consolidation. All IKH-patterns: a disposition of the price below Cumo, and ChS below the price chart, "a deadly cross", "a three-line signal" and future Down Cumo testify to strength of a Bearish trend on European currency. Resistance now is fast trend line TS.

GBPUSD

On Friday the British pound has tested resistance on the Cumo's bottom boundary SSB and has fallen. It confirms preservation the Bullish market and the majority of IKH-patterns: a disposition of the price under Cumo, and ChS below the price chart, "a deadly cross", and future Down Cumo testify to an opportunity of renewal of a down trend too. But horizontality of trend lines TS and KS, speaks that consolidation still is not completed but decline of TS, will point to its ending.

USDJPY

A Japanese Yen on Friday has risen again, completely having restored the positions lost on Thursday, and rise of fast trend line TS speaks about end of consolidation and renewal of an up trend. All IKH-patterns: a disposition of a rate above Up Cumo, and ChS above the price chart, "a golden cross" and "a three-lines signal" also testify about steady of a Bullish trend. The nearest support is fast trend line TS.

USDCAD

On Friday a Canadian dollar has risen again, having compensated the falling on the eve. Despite of observable consolidation, the majority of IKH-patterns: mount of the price above Cumo, "a golden cross", rise of ChS above the price chart and future Up Cumo point to probability of continuation of an up trend. The support is fast trend line TS now.

AUDUSD

An Australian dollar on Friday oscillated within the Cumo a little having declined on results of day. It means begin of flat dynamics on the Australian currency between support on SSB and resistance on SSA. Horizontality of fast trend line TS also speaks about consolidations, but disposition of ChS below the price chart, TS below KS and future Down Cumo testify to an opportunity of continuation of falling.

NZDUSD

On Friday a New Zealand dollar has fallen, having declined below trend lines TS and KS, that means the beginning of deep descending correction with the target of fall on the Cumo's upper boundary SSA acting now a role of support. But herewith a disposition of the price above wide Up Cumo, ChS above the price chart and "a golden cross" speak about kept strength of a Bullish trend and an opportunity of its renewal. A pattern to this will be rise of a rate of the New Zealand currency above upsurging fast trend line TS.

GBPCHF

Cross-rate of the British pound to the Swiss franc on Friday has risen, finally having renewed an up trend about which presence now speak all IKH-patterns: a disposition of a rate above wide up Cumo, TS above KS, and ChS above the price chart, "a golden cross" and "a three-line signal". The rate of the British pound to US dollar has not yet to begin a down trend and was consolidated, and a Swiss franc is in a Bullish trend that points to probability of fall of cross-rate of these currencies.

On Friday a US dollar again has strengthened the positions in the international currency market. A Swiss franc, a Japanese Yen and a Canadian dollar have renewed ascending trends, and Euro has continued down trend. A British pound was consolidated, having kept probability of the beginning of a down trend, and its cross-rate to the Swiss franc has continued an up trend. An Australian dollar has flat dynamics, and the New Zealand dollar has begun deep descending correction.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is Japanese for "one glance cloud chart." It consists of five lines called Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen (sen is Japanese for line), Senkou Span A, Senkou Span B and Chinkou Span. The calculation uses four different time periods which we call termT, termK, termS and termC. The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is graphed over the closing price line. The space between the Senkou spans is called the Cloud, and is usually graphed in a hatched pattern.

The Senkou Spans are support and resistance lines. When the price is in the Cloud, the market is non-trending. When the price is above the Cloud, the higher Span is the first support level and the lower Span is the second support level. When the price is below the Cloud, the lower Span is the first resistance level and the higher Span is the second resistance level.

Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen are trend indicators. When the price is above the Kijun-sen, prices will likely continue to go up, when the price is below the Kijun-sen, prices will likely continue to go down. The direction of the Tenkan-sen indicates the direction of the trend. If the Tenkan-sen is flat, the market is in a non-trending channel.

A final feature of Ichimoku is the Chikou Span. This line can also be used to determine the strength of the buy or sell signal. If the Chikou Span was below the closing price and a sell signal was issued, then the strength is with the sellers, otherwise it is a weak signal. Conversely, if there was a buy signal and the Chikou Span was above the price, then there is strength to the upside, otherwise it can be considered a weak buy signal. This feature can also be incorporated into the other signals.

Chinkou Span shows the closing price of the current candle shifted backwards by the value of the second time interval. The distance between the Senkou lines is hatched with another color and called 'cloud'. If the price is between these lines, the market should be considered as non-trend, and then the cloud margins form the support and opposition levels. If the price is above the cloud, its upper line forms the first support level, and the second line forms the second support level. If the price is below cloud, the lower line forms the first opposition level, and the upper one forms the second level. If the "Chinkou Span" line traverses the price chart in the bottom-up direction it is signal to buy. If the "Chinkou Span" line traverses the price chart in the top-down direction it is signal to sell. "Kijun-sen" is used as an indicator of the market movement. If the price is higher than this indicator, the prices will probably continue to increase. When the price traverses this line the further trend changing is possible.

Another kind of using the "Kijun-sen" is giving signals. Signal to buy is generated when the "Tenkan-sen" line traverses the "Kijun-sen" in the bottom-up direction. Top-down direction is the signal to sell. "Tenkan-sen" is used as an indicator of the market trend. If this line increases or decreases, the trend exists. When it goes horizontally, it means that the market has come into the channel.

Most traditional technical analysis techniques are based on the open, high, low, close or average price. Others may use volatility while fixed scales such as Fibonacci numbers have also been applied. But the results are the same. Support and resistance levels are always depicted as a point or a line.