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Ichimoku Forex Forecast by Integra Capital Ltd.
03-07 October 2006
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03-07 October 2006
Ichimoku Forex Forecast by Integra Capital Ltd.
03.10.2006
Abbreviated: IKH - Ishimoku Kinko Hyo, TS - Tenkan-sen, KS - Kijun-sen, SSA - Senkou Span A, SSB - Senkou Span B, ChS - Chinkou Span, Up Cumo - yellow "cloud", Down Cumo - brown "cloud"
EURUSD
A rate of Euro on Monday has considerably risen and has entered into Cumo, continuing to move from support on its bottom boundary SSB, to resistance on upper boundary SSA at today's Asian session. It means end of attempt to begin the downside tendency and onset a flat dynamics of the European currency. Horizontality of trend lines TS and KS and contact of ChS to the price chart also speak about consolidations, but disposition of TS below KS and thin future Down Cumo, weak pattern about an opportunity of rate fall still give.
GBPUSD
On Monday a british pound has sharply risen in price and its rate has left from Cumo, and in today's Asian session its remained practically constant. Horizontality of trend lines TS and KS and contact of ChS to the price chart speak about continuation of consolidation, but rise of the price above wide Up Cumo points to an opportunity of the beginning of an up trend on the british currency. The further rise of a rate accompanied by rise TS and ChS, will confirm a begin the Bullish trend, but falling of the price below support SSA and return of the price to Cumo will renew flat dynamics.
USDJPY
A Japanese Yen on Monday has essentially decreased, having continued falling and in today's Asian session. However, despite of it, all IKH-patterns: a disposition of a rate above Up Cumo, and ChS above the price chart, the "golden cross" and a "three-line signal" point to kept strength of a Bullish trend. The nearest support is fast trend line TS and its breakdown, in case of the further falling the price will form a pattern to descending correction.
USDCAD
On Monday a Canadian dollar has fallen, however long shadows of a black candlestick testify to some market's uncertainty, and in today's Asian session it remained practically constant. Preservation of a rate under Down Cumo, under horizontality of trend lines TS and KS speaks about consolidation below resistance on SSA, but rise ChS above the price chart and disposition of KS below TS speak about Bullish market. Now a situation with dynamics of the Canadian currency is ambiguity.
AUDUSD
An Australian dollar on Monday has risen in price, having formed a candlestick configuration a "piercing line", point to a possible turn of the tendency, and in today's Asian session the rate oscillated at one level. But as yet all indications on the beginning of a down trend on the Australian currency keep the strength: the disposition of price below Cumo, and ChS - below the price chart, the future Down Cumo and there is a "deadly cross". Important resistance is the Como's bottom boundary SSB: under preservation of the price below it there is an opportunity of the beginning of the down trend whereas its breakout by a rate upside becomes the onset of flat dynamics..
NZDUSD
On Monday a New Zealand dollar has essentially risen, having mounted above support KS and almost having got to resistance TS, and in today's Asian session it oscillated at one level. It means end of descending correction and consolidation of a rate between trend lines. Herewith many IKH-patterns: a disposition of a rate above Up Cumo, ChS above the price chart, and TS above KS speak about kept strength of a Bullish trend, and rise of the price above upsurge fast trend line TS gives a pattern to its renewal.
GBPCHF
A cross-rate of british pound/Swiss franc on Monday oscillated at one level, having formed a candlestick "white hummer", meaning opportunity of rise, and in today's Asian session it remained almost constant. Now there is an end of deep descending correction and consolidation of cross-rate on a level of basic trend line KS. While the price is kept above wide Up Cumo, ChS above the price chart, and TS above KS there is an opportunity of renewal of an up trend, however to speak about this it will be possible only after rise of the price above upsurge fast trend line TS. The rate of the british pound to US dollar has risen and tries to enter into an up trend, and a Swiss franc has fallen in price and was consolidated, that points to cross-rate of these currencies probability of rise.
On Monday a US dollar has fallen in price to the major currencies. A Swiss franc has fallen and consolidated, not having managed to begin the up trend, a Japanese Yen has fallen in price too, but an up trend is valid as yet, and a Canadian dollar was consolidated also a situation with it is ambiguity. Euro has risen in the price, has denied patterns about possible decrease and has started a flat dynamics, and a british pound quickly rises in price, and has ended of flat, having created premises for the beginning an up trend. An Australian dollar was consolidated, but all indications on an opportunity of begin a down trend keep the force, and the New Zealand dollar has finished descending correction and tries to renew up trend. Cross-rate of british pound to the Swiss franc also has finished descending correction and was consolidated at preservation of an opportunity of renewal trend rise.
04.10.2006
USDCHF
On Tuesday and today's Asian session a Swiss franc has renewed the rise, having rebounded from support on almost conterminous trend lines TS and KS. This rebound is the strength pattern on an opportunity of renewal a Bullish trend, as other IKH-patterns: a disposition of a rate above Cumo, and ChS above the price chart, future Up Cumo and a "three-line pattern" also speak about an opportunity of rise of a rate. But trend lines are still horizontal, that testifies about consolidations, and upsurge of fast trend lines TS will gives a final confirmation of the beginning of an up trend.
EURUSD
A rate of Euro on Tuesday and today's Asian session has slowly fallen, remaining within the Cumo that means flat dynamics between support on SSB and resistance on SSA. Horizontality of trend lines TS and KS also speaks about consolidations, but disposition of TS below KS, pullback of ChS from the price chart and thin future Down Cumo give the patterns about an opportunity of fall of a rate.
GBPUSD
On Monday a british pound oscillated at one level, having formed together with a previous big white candlestick a configuration the "star" points to an opportunity of the discontinuance of rise, and in today's Asian session it has started to fall. Meanwhile the price still has not breakdown strong support on almost conterminous lines TS, KS and SSA, but in case of entrance of a rate to Cumo dynamics will get flat character, but the further rise will create premises to the beginning a Bullish trend. Wide Up Cumo speaks well for rise, but horizontality of trend lines TS and KS together with contact ChS of the price chart point to consolidation.
USDJPY
A Japanese Yen on Tuesday has risen also and a candlestick "closing bozu" foretold the further rise which is observed in today's Asian session. Trend lines TS and KS are for the present horizontal and speak about technical consolidation, but all IKH-patterns: a disposition of a rate above Up Cumo, and ChS above the price chart, the "golden cross" and a "three-line signal" point to presence in the market of the Japanese currency a strength Bullish trend. The nearest support is fast trend line TS, and its upsurge will give a pattern to end of consolidation.
USDCAD
On a Canadian dollar has sharply risen, and in today's Asian session it remained practically constant. breakout of SSA by rate and an entrance of the price to Cumo mean the beginning flat dynamics of the Canadian currency between support on SSA and resistance on SSB. Herewith rise ChS above the price chart points to an opportunity of the further rise, but wide Down Cumo speaks about probability of falling that makes a situation ambiguity.
AUDUSD
An Australian dollar on Tuesday has fallen in price, having rebounded from resistance on SSB downside, and in today's Asian session it oscillated almost at one level. This fall has confirmed an entrance of the Australian currency in a Bearish trend about which presence now speak almost all of IKH-patterns: a disposition of the price below Cumo, and ChS below the price chart, future Down Cumo and a "deadly cross". Formation of a "three-line signal" will testify to stability of Bearish market.
NZDUSD
On Tuesday a New Zealand dollar has fallen, and in today's Asian session has a little risen, making oscillation under fast trend line TS that means continuation of consolidation of the New Zealand currency between horizontal trend lines KS (resistance) and TS (support). Vicinity of ChS to the price chart also points to consolidation, but a disposition of a rate above wide Up Cumo, and TS above KS, testifies to an opportunity of renewal of a Bullish trend, a pattern to what will be rise of the price above upsurging TS.
GBPCHF
A cross-rate of british pound/Swiss franc on Tuesday has risen, and in today's Asian session has slightly fallen. Rise of a rate above the basic trend line KS and rebound of ChS from the price chart upside strengthen probability of renewal of a Bullish trend on this cross-country, the disposition of the price above wide Up Cumo and TS above KS also testifies to an opportunity of rise. A pattern to this will give rise of the price above upsurging fast trend line TS, but now consolidation of a rate between horizontal KS (support) and TS (resistance) is observed. The rate of the british pound to US dollar has now ambiguity dynamics, and a Swiss franc rise and tries to renew up trend, that points to probability of rise for cross-rate of these currencies.
On Tuesday a US dollar again begun to strengthen the positions in the international financial market. A Swiss franc has renewed the rise and tries to begin an up trend, a Japanese Yen also rise in a Bullish trend, and a Canadian dollar has sharply risen in price and has begun flat. A Euro continues flat dynamics, and a british pound was consolidated, and its further dynamics uncertain. An Australian dollar has fallen, having confirmed begin a down trend, and a New Zealand dollar and cross-rate of the british pound to the Swiss franc were consolidated after descending correction, keeping indications on an opportunity of renewal of up trends.
05.10.2006
USDCHF
On Monday a Swiss franc has sharply fallen, having continued slow decrease in today's Asian trading session. Currently the price has got to support on conterminous trend lines TS and KS, and their breakdown will open a way to falling up to the Cumo's upper boundary SSB. However many IKH-patterns: a disposition of a rate above Cumo, and ChS above the price chart and future Up Cumo, speak about a kept opportunity of rise of a rate. Therefore the rebound of the price upside from fast trend line TS, confirmed by its rise, will point to renewal of an up trend.
EURUSD
A rate of Euro on Monday has considerably risen and has entered into Cumo, continuing to move from support on its bottom boundary SSB, to resistance on upper boundary SSA at today's Asian session. It means end of attempt to begin the downside tendency and onset a flat dynamics of the European currency. Horizontality of trend lines TS and KS and contact of ChS to the price chart also speak about consolidations, but disposition of TS below KS and thin future Down Cumo, weak pattern about an opportunity of rate fall still give.
GBPUSD
On Monday a british pound has sharply risen in price and its rate has left from Cumo, and in today's Asian session its remained practically constant. Horizontality of trend lines TS and KS and contact of ChS to the price chart speak about continuation of consolidation, but rise of the price above wide Up Cumo points to an opportunity of the beginning of an up trend on the british currency. The further rise of a rate accompanied by rise TS and ChS, will confirm a begin the Bullish trend, but falling of the price below support SSA and return of the price to Cumo will renew flat dynamics.
USDJPY
A Japanese Yen on Monday has essentially decreased, having continued falling and in today's Asian session. However, despite of it, all IKH-patterns: a disposition of a rate above Up Cumo, and ChS above the price chart, the "golden cross" and a "three-line signal" point to kept strength of a Bullish trend. The nearest support is fast trend line TS and its breakdown, in case of the further falling the price will form a pattern to descending correction.
USDCAD
On Monday a Canadian dollar has fallen, however long shadows of a black candlestick testify to some market's uncertainty, and in today's Asian session it remained practically constant. Preservation of a rate under Down Cumo, under horizontality of trend lines TS and KS speaks about consolidation below resistance on SSA, but rise ChS above the price chart and disposition of KS below TS speak about Bullish market. Now a situation with dynamics of the Canadian currency is ambiguity.
AUDUSD
An Australian dollar on Monday has risen in price, having formed a candlestick configuration a "piercing line", point to a possible turn of the tendency, and in today's Asian session the rate oscillated at one level. But as yet all indications on the beginning of a down trend on the Australian currency keep the strength: the disposition of price below Cumo, and ChS - below the price chart, the future Down Cumo and there is a "deadly cross". Important resistance is the Como's bottom boundary SSB: under preservation of the price below it there is an opportunity of the beginning of the down trend whereas its breakout by a rate upside becomes the onset of flat dynamics..
NZDUSD
On Monday a New Zealand dollar has essentially risen, having mounted above support KS and almost having got to resistance TS, and in today's Asian session it oscillated at one level. It means end of descending correction and consolidation of a rate between trend lines. Herewith many IKH-patterns: a disposition of a rate above Up Cumo, ChS above the price chart, and TS above KS speak about kept strength of a Bullish trend, and rise of the price above upsurge fast trend line TS gives a pattern to its renewal.
GBPCHF
A cross-rate of british pound/Swiss franc on Monday oscillated at one level, having formed a candlestick "white hummer", meaning opportunity of rise, and in today's Asian session it remained almost constant. Now there is an end of deep descending correction and consolidation of cross-rate on a level of basic trend line KS. While the price is kept above wide Up Cumo, ChS above the price chart, and TS above KS there is an opportunity of renewal of an up trend, however to speak about this it will be possible only after rise of the price above upsurge fast trend line TS. The rate of the british pound to US dollar has risen and tries to enter into an up trend, and a Swiss franc has fallen in price and was consolidated, that points to cross-rate of these currencies probability of rise.
On Monday a US dollar has fallen in price to the major currencies. A Swiss franc has fallen and consolidated, not having managed to begin the up trend, a Japanese Yen has fallen in price too, but an up trend is valid as yet, and a Canadian dollar was consolidated also a situation with it is ambiguity. Euro has risen in the price, has denied patterns about possible decrease and has started a flat dynamics, and a british pound quickly rises in price, and has ended of flat, having created premises for the beginning an up trend. An Australian dollar was consolidated, but all indications on an opportunity of begin a down trend keep the force, and the New Zealand dollar has finished descending correction and tries to renew up trend. Cross-rate of british pound to the Swiss franc also has finished descending correction and was consolidated at preservation of an opportunity of renewal trend rise.
06.10.2006
USDCHF
On Thursday a Swiss franc has accelerated the rise, and in today's Asian session oscillated at one level. The upsurge of trend lines which has begun yesterday means final of consolidation and the beginning of a Bullish trend. All IKH-patterns now testify to its presence: a disposition of a rate above Cumo, and ChS above the price chart, future Up Cumo and "a three-line signal". The nearest support is fast trend line TS.
EURUSD
A rate of Euro on Thursday and today's Asian session has continued slow, but the stable fall and has finally left Cumo, having breakdown SSB. It is rather strong pattern on an opportunity of the beginning of a down trend on the European currency, and other IKH-patterns: disposition of ChS below the price chart, "a deadly cross" and future Down Cumo are Bearish too. Occurrence of "a three-line signal" will point to stability of trend falling, the resistance now is the Cumo's bottom boundary SSB.
GBPUSD
On Thursday a rate of the british pound has considerably declined, continuing to fall and in today's Asian session. Return of a rate to within a Cumo, means renewal of flat dynamics between support on SSB and resistance SSA. Herewith conterminous trend lines while are horizontal, also speaking about consolidation, but ChS is below the price chart, forecasting the further falling.
USDJPY
A Japanese Yen on Thursday oscillated at one level, having formed a candlestick "hummer", testifying to market balance and in today's Asian session rate has sharply risen. All IKH-patterns: a disposition of a rate above Up Cumo, and ChS above the price chart, "a golden cross" and "a three-line signal" testify to end of consolidation and renewal of a Bullish trend. The nearest line of support is fast o?aiaiaay line TS.
USDCAD
On Thursday a Canadian dollar oscillated above the Cumo's upper boundary SSB, having formed a candlestick "a black spinning top" with the long shadows, points to uncertainty in the market, and in today's Asian trading session the rate also remained at one level. Horizontality of trend lines TS and KS speaks about the begun of consolidation of the Canadian currency, but rise of a rate above Cumo, upsurge ChS above the price chart and "a golden cross", testify to an opportunity of the beginning of a Bullish trend. However wide Down Cumo foretells falling, and in case of decline of price below support SSB its dynamics will renew flat character. Therefore the situation in the market of the Canadian currency keeps uncertainty.
AUDUSD
An Australian dollar on Thursday oscillated on one level, having formed the candlestick "doji" testifying about uncertainty in the market, and in today's Asian session it has a little risen. The discontinuances of fall of a rate, together with horizontality of trend lines speaks about the begun consolidation of the Australian currency, but herewith almost all IKH-patterns: a disposition of the price below Cumo, and ChS below the price chart, future Down Cumo and "a deadly cross", speak about probable continuation of a Bearish trend. Formation of "a three-line signal " will testify to trend's stability, and the nearest resistance now is fast trend line TS.
NZDUSD
On Thursday a New Zealand dollar has slightly risen in price, having formed a candlestick configuration "star" which usually foretells a turn of the tendency, and in today's Asian session a rate, really, began to fall. Horizontality of trend lines KS and TS speaks about continuation of consolidation, but many other IKH-patterns: a disposition of the price above wide Up Cumo, ChS above the price chart, and TS above KS and "a three-line signal ", testify to preservation of strength of a Bullish trend. A final pattern to its renewal will upsurge of support on fast trend line TS.
GBPCHF
A cross-rate of british pound to Swiss franc on Thursday and today's Asian session slowly fell, remaining above trend lines. It speaks about consolidation, at preservation of an opportunity of renewal of a Bullish trend to which strength the disposition of a rate wide Up Cumo, TS above KS, and ChS above the price chart testifies. breakdown of support on close trend lines will becomes the beginning of deep descending correction, and a rebound upside, confirmed by upsurge of TS, will renew an up trend. The rate of the british pound to US dollar has now got flat dynamics and fall, and Swiss franc the beginning an up trend that points to probability of continuation of consolidation cross-rate of these currencies in the near future.
On Thursday a US dollar has continued to strengthen the positions in the international currency market. A Swiss franc the beginnings an up trend, a Japanese Yen also finishes consolidation and renews trend rise, and Canadian dollar was consolidated, having kept premises for the beginning an up trend. The Euro becomes cheaper, and has finished flat, having formed patterns about an opportunity of the beginning a downing, and the british pound has renewal a flat. An Australian dollar was consolidated on within a down trend, and a New Zealand dollar and cross-rate of the british pound to the Swiss franc continue consolidation at top of strength up trends.
07.10.2006
USDCHF
On Friday a Swiss franc has sharply risen, having got up almost on a "figure", having continued a Bullish trend. Now all IKH-patterns: a disposition of a rate above Cumo, and ChS above the price chart, future Up Cumo and "a three-line signal" testify to its presence. The nearest support if fast trend line TS.
EURUSD
A rate of Euro on Friday has accelerated the falling and has declined on the whole one "figure", having begun a down trend finally. Now almost all IKH-patterns: falling of the price below a Cumo, disposition of ChS below the price chart, "the deadly cross" and future Down Cumo point to the beginning a Bearish trend on European currency. Occurrence of "a three-line signal" will point to stability of trend falling. The resistance now is fast trend line TS.
GBPUSD
On Friday a rate of the british pound has continued the falling within the Cumo that speaks about flat dynamics between support on SSB and resistance on SSA. Herewith contact of lines SSA and SSB also speaks about market balance, but decline of conterminous trend lines TS and KS, and disposition of ChS below the price chart points to an opportunity of continuation of falling of a rate of the british currency.
USDJPY
A Japanese Yen on Friday has pass through heavy intermittent rise, having got to more than for a "figure", continuing a long-term up trend. About its presence now speak all IKH-patterns: a disposition of a rate above Up Cumo, and ChS above the price chart, "a golden cross" and "a three-line signal". The nearest line of support is fast trend line TS.
USDCAD
On Friday a Canadian dollar has continued oscillated above Cumo, having formed the second at a run candlestick "spinning top", with a small body and the long shadows, testifying about balance and uncertainty in the market successively. Horizontality fast trend lines TS also speaks about consolidations of the Canadian currency, but rise of a rate above Cumo, upsurge of ChS above the price chart and "a gold cross" testify to an opportunity of the beginning a Bullish trend. However wide Down Cumo foretells falling, and in case of decline of price below support SSB will renew flat dynamic. Therefore the situation in the market of the Canadian currency keeps uncertainty.
AUDUSD
An Australian dollar on Friday has tested of resistance on fast o?aiaiaie lines TS and has considerably fallen in price, having confirmed strength of a down trend to which testify almost all IKH-patterns: a disposition of the price below Cumo, and ChS below the price chart, future Down Cumo and "a deadly cross". However trend lines TS and KS while are horizontal and points to not completed consolidation. Decline of TS will give a pattern to renewal of a Bearish trend, and formation of "a three-line pattern" will testify to trends stability.
NZDUSD
On Friday a New Zealand dollar has essentially fallen in price, having finished formation of a candlestick configuration "an evening star", usually foretelling the further falling. Now the rate has got to the nearest support on fast trend line TS, and its breakdown will specify the beginning of descending correction, and the rebound upside will confirm strength of a up trend. Many IKH-patterns now testify to the trend presence: a disposition of the price above wide Up Cumo, ChS above the price chart, and TS above KS and "a three-line signal".
GBPCHF
A cross-rate of british pound to Swiss franc on Friday has risen, having caused that, upsurge of fast trend line TS. It is a pattern to renewal of an up trend and all other signals IKH-patterns: a disposition of a rate above wide up Cumo, TS above KS, and ChS above the price chart, "a golden cross" and "a three-line signal "also point to the trend. The rate of the british pound to US dollar now has flat dynamics in a stage of fall, and a Swiss franc heavy rise in a Bullish trend that points to probability of continuation of rise of cross-rate of these currencies in the near future.
On Friday a US dollar has sharply risen in price to the major currencies. A Swiss franc and a Japanese Yen quickly rise in up ascending trends, and a Canadian dollar was consolidated, and situation with it is ambiguity. Euro has sharply fallen and has started a down trend, and the british pound has fallen within the flat dynamics. An Australian dollar was consolidated in a down trend, and a New Zealand dollar was consolidated at top of an up trend. Cross-rate of the british pound to the Swiss franc has finished consolidation and has continued a long-term up trend.
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is Japanese for "one glance cloud chart." It consists of five lines called Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen (sen is Japanese for line), Senkou Span A, Senkou Span B and Chinkou Span. The calculation uses four different time periods which we call termT, termK, termS and termC. The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is graphed over the closing price line. The space between the Senkou spans is called the Cloud, and is usually graphed in a hatched pattern.
The Senkou Spans are support and resistance lines. When the price is in the Cloud, the market is non-trending. When the price is above the Cloud, the higher Span is the first support level and the lower Span is the second support level. When the price is below the Cloud, the lower Span is the first resistance level and the higher Span is the second resistance level.
Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen are trend indicators. When the price is above the Kijun-sen, prices will likely continue to go up, when the price is below the Kijun-sen, prices will likely continue to go down. The direction of the Tenkan-sen indicates the direction of the trend. If the Tenkan-sen is flat, the market is in a non-trending channel.
A final feature of Ichimoku is the Chikou Span. This line can also be used to determine the strength of the buy or sell signal. If the Chikou Span was below the closing price and a sell signal was issued, then the strength is with the sellers, otherwise it is a weak signal. Conversely, if there was a buy signal and the Chikou Span was above the price, then there is strength to the upside, otherwise it can be considered a weak buy signal. This feature can also be incorporated into the other signals.
Chinkou Span shows the closing price of the current candle shifted backwards by the value of the second time interval. The distance between the Senkou lines is hatched with another color and called 'cloud'. If the price is between these lines, the market should be considered as non-trend, and then the cloud margins form the support and opposition levels. If the price is above the cloud, its upper line forms the first support level, and the second line forms the second support level. If the price is below cloud, the lower line forms the first opposition level, and the upper one forms the second level. If the "Chinkou Span" line traverses the price chart in the bottom-up direction it is signal to buy. If the "Chinkou Span" line traverses the price chart in the top-down direction it is signal to sell. "Kijun-sen" is used as an indicator of the market movement. If the price is higher than this indicator, the prices will probably continue to increase. When the price traverses this line the further trend changing is possible.
Another kind of using the "Kijun-sen" is giving signals. Signal to buy is generated when the "Tenkan-sen" line traverses the "Kijun-sen" in the bottom-up direction. Top-down direction is the signal to sell. "Tenkan-sen" is used as an indicator of the market trend. If this line increases or decreases, the trend exists. When it goes horizontally, it means that the market has come into the channel.
Most traditional technical analysis techniques are based on the open, high, low, close or average price. Others may use volatility while fixed scales such as Fibonacci numbers have also been applied. But the results are the same. Support and resistance levels are always depicted as a point or a line.